Answer 1:
Great question! Models for the earth’s heat
flux (basically a measure of how fast the earth is
losing heat) definitely predict that it will be
colder in a billion years, just as it is colder
today than it was a billion years ago. This is
because the earth is losing heat faster than it
gains it from sources such as the sun’s radiation.
Geophysical studies show that the mean heat flux
of the earth is about 87 milliwatts per square
meter– that’s 44 trillion Watts of heat flow for
the whole earth (Francis & Oppenheimer, 2004, and
references therein). Even though we are losing
heat on the long-term, our atmosphere is
definitely heating up on the short term
see
here
There are two major sources of the earth’s
heat– accretionary energy and radioactive decay.
The earth formed about 4.6 billions years ago by
the gravitational attraction of smaller bodies
(planetesimals). As this material in our solar
nebula came together, the gravitational potential
energy was converted to heat energy. More heat was
liberated when the earth’s core and mantle formed,
or differentiated. This accretionary energy has
slowly been lost through convection and conduction
from the core and the mantle through the crust,
and eventually radiation out into space.
The most important source of heat in the
earth’s crust is the decay of radioactive
isotopes, primarily 40K (potassium), 238Uranium,
235Uranium, and 232Thorium. These isotopes
(especially 40K) are abundant in the crust, and
they release a lot of heat as they decay to their
stable daughter isotopes. They were formed in
stars and supernovae long before the earth was
formed. Their budget in the earth is limited, and
they decay exponentially, so there is less and
less heat producing isotopes in the crust over
time.
Eventually the earth will be so cold that
plate tectonics will not be able to operate. This
will have serious consequences for the atmosphere
and water on the surface of the earth, and
therefore life. DON’T WORRY! The earth is cooling
at a rate of only ~100 C per billion years
(Francis & Oppenheimer, 2004), so it won’t be
noticeably colder for quite some time.
References
Francis, P. & Oppenheimer, C. (2004). Volcanoes.
Oxford: Oxford University Press.
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Answer 2:
There are many factors that influence the
Earth's temperature, and a lot can happen in a
billion years. Many astronomers believe the Earth
will become too hot to sustain life in ~0.5
billion years, as the sun will change and get too
hot for our liking. That said, here are a couple
things to consider.
If we took a simple model where we looked only
at the Earth, it is likely that the world will be
colder in a billion years. One of the largest
sources of heat for the planet is the radioactive
decay of Uranium, Thorium, and Potassium. The
Earth loses a lot of heat (energy) to the void of
space, in a similar way that you lose heat to the
air if the air is cold and you're warm. (It's not
quite the same, but the idea is similar, in that
if something is hot and it's surrounded by
something cold, the hot object will lose heat
through one of several possible ways.) If it
wasn't for the radioactive decay of these
elements, the Earth would have already cooled down
after less than 100 million years. (The earth is
4.5 billion years old). At the same time, the
Earth is slowly moving away from the sun, which
will cause a slight cooling.
However, over the course of 0.5-1 billion
years, it's expected that the sun will run out of
hydrogen and will become a red dwarf (i.e. it will
become larger and hotter), causing the temperature
of the Earth to increase and the oceans to
evaporate. Things don't look good for us
long-term.
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Answer 3:
The Earth will almost certainly be a great deal
hotter in a billion years, because the sun will be
quite a bit brighter in a billion years. Exactly
how hot the Earth will be by then I don't think we
know at this time (e.g. will life on Earth still
exist a billion years from now?), but it will be
hotter than it is now.
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