Answer 1:
This is currently a scientific "hot" topic (ha
:). There are many projections of what will
happen, and all of them depend on what we do today
and in the next 5-10 years. The farther we go int
he future the harder it is to predict what's going
to happen. Politically, there is currently very
little motivation to make change to how we get
energy, and with developing countries
increasing how much fuel they use, some of the
predictions can be severe. It's very hard to say
what exactly will happen, so there are a range of
results. The three main changes will be in
overall temperature, rainfall, and sea level.
All resources used in this are from the EPA unless
otherwise noted.
Carbon dioxide:
Carbon dioxide itself is harmless, but it is being
released in high amounts by cars and factories and
any time we burn fuels like gasoline, oil, or
coal. Although it is at too low a level for humans
to be harmed by it, it causes the earth to heat
up. Normally, the sun heats the Earth, and the
Earth releases this heat back into space. Carbon
dioxide has the ability to also absorb heat from
the Earth, so instead of going to space, it goes
into the carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Since
we have greatly increased the amount of carbon
dioxide in the atmosphere, this is like putting a
blanket on the earth and keeping the heat in.
That's how it causes global warming. Here:
in this link are different predictions of how
much carbon dioxide we release. This part depends
a lot on how we act in the future. Scientists are
trying to lower the amount or carbon dioxide 2
ways: alternative non-burning energy (solar,
wind, water, nuclear), and making materials that
filter carbon dioxide out of the air. Some of
these solutions are expensive and many people
don't actually believe in global warming, so
nobody really has invested too much in these fixes
yet. But, they are hopefully on the way. Now that
you've seen what we are releasing and the range of
projections, let's go on to the effects.
Temperature:
In general, temperatures will rise. Temperatures
will rise the most at the north and south pole
regions. This will melt ice and raise sea
levels. It will also change what crops can be
grown where. This is probably my biggest concern,
as the global food supply should shift somewhat
unpredictably. With the advances we are making in
genetic modification, we should be OK. Globally,
here is how temperatures would rise for the
different predictions:
click here. This would result in some
significant changes in climate, and an increase in
the desert sizes nearby. Here's an image showing
how the poles will be the hottest:
hot poles
Rainfall:
Temperature and ocean changes will lead to shifts
in where rain falls. This will be largely a mixed
bag globally. Parts of Africa that are nearly a
desert will have forests, and parts of the US
where we grow food will become deserts. Many
scientists think our current drought is only a
small sample of what will happen. It's very hard
to predict these things, but they will change. The
change will be slow and take many years, so it may
be hard to see without looking at lots of data.
Here is a map of the world and how rainfall may
change:
rainfall "DJF" means December, Jan, and Feb
so winter. JJA means June July August so summer.
Blues and greens are wetter, reds and yellows are
drier. The concern is that the US will have
deserts where we currently grow food. This would
be bad.
Sea level:
When temperatures rise, ice melts (especially at
the poles). If an iceberg melts it won't make the
seas rise (think ice cubes melting in a cup of
water don't make it overflow). But, lots of ice
on the land such as glaciers will melt into the
ocean. This could put some land near the
oceans underwater, including New York City and
many island countries. This is more in the distant
future (but still perhaps within your lifetime) so
nothing to panic about yet. Many island countries
are preparing for this possibly happening. Again,
there are a wide range of possible scenarios and
this will happen slowly. For an idea, here is what
would change on the US east coast:
changes
Keep in mind that models predicting the future
are only as good as the people who make them.
We have time to turn this warming around, and as
it affects more and more people, we will be able
to fix it. Still, it is perhaps the biggest
challenge of the 21st century. We will have to
wait and see how much of these predictions are
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