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Are there any patterns in the occurrence of droughts in Southern California and the North of Mexico?
Question Date: 2021-10-07
Answer 1:

Yes. Unfortunately, this question is so vague that I can't really give a more useful answer than a flat 'yes'.

There are cyclical behavior in droughts, but the processes responsible for these cycles aren't well known. A common pattern is that El Niño years are more likely to be wet, while La Niña years are more likely to be dry, but there are dry El Niño years and wet or at least average La Niña years. Generally speaking, predicting and explaining year to year climate variability is a field in its infancy.


Answer 2:

This link has an interesting graphic showing the US drought conditions from 2000-2020. There seem to be cycles for most of that time, getting less regular in the last few years - see this graphic: Continental U.S. drought conditions.

In this article figure 3 has 2 images that cover northwest Mexico and most of Baja CA - one from long ago, reconstructed, and one with recent data.

The paper thinks there will be a "need for regional sustainability planning for the future." [last sentence of the abstract]



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